Rising Temps Linked with Increased OSA Burden

Summary: A global study found that rising temperatures significantly increase the severity and prevalence of OSA, and modeling predicts that under likely climate change scenarios, the societal burden of OSA could double or triple by 2100.

Key Takeaways:

Rising ambient temperatures are associated with a 45% increased likelihood of OSA events on a given night.
The burden of OSA has already risen an estimated 50% to 100% since 2000 due to climate change.
Regional variation exists, with European countries more affected by temperature-related OSA severity than Australia or the US.

Rising temperatures are linked to increased severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), according to a large new study published at the ATS 2025 International Conference. The study also found that, under the most likely climate change scenarios, the societal burden of OSA is expected to double in most countries over the next 75 years.

In addition to highlighting the critical importance of limiting global warming, the findings also emphasize the immediate need for strategies to alleviate the health and economic impacts of OSA as it becomes more common and severe, the researchers say.

“This study really highlights the societal burden associated with the increase in OSA prevalence due to rising temperatures,” says Bastien Lechat, PhD, a senior research fellow at FHMRI: Sleep Health at Flinders University, in a release.

For the study, researchers analyzed a consumer database of more than 116,000 worldwide users of an under-mattress sensor validated to estimate OSA severity. The dataset included around 500 repeat measurements per user. Researchers then analyzed this data against 24-hour ambient temperatures extracted from climate models.

Overall, higher temperatures were associated with a 45% increased likelihood of a sleeper experiencing OSA on a given night. However, these findings varied by region, with people in European countries seeing higher rates of OSA when temperatures rise than those in Australia and the United States.

“We were surprised by the magnitude of the association between ambient temperature and OSA severity,” Lechat says.

Researchers then sought to estimate how burdensome the increase in OSA prevalence due to rising temperature is to society in terms of well-being and economic loss. They conducted modeling, including disability-adjusted-life-years, productivity losses, and health economics, to estimate the OSA burden under several climate scenarios.

They found that any scenario that involved temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius or higher would result in a 1.5-fold to 3-fold increase to the OSA burden by the year 2100. They estimated that climate change has already increased the OSA burden by 50% to 100% since the year 2000.

In addition to providing further evidence of the major threat of climate change to human health and well-being, Lechat says the study highlighted the importance of developing effective interventions to diagnose and manage OSA.

“The high prevalence undiagnosed and untreated OSA amplifies the effect of global warming on the societal burden associated with OSA,” he says. “Higher rates of diagnosis and treatment is likely to reduce the health and productivity burden due to rising temperature and increased OSA prevalence.”

Next, the team plans to develop intervention studies looking at strategies to mitigate the effects of temperature on OSA. They also hope to study the physiological mechanisms linking OSA severity to temperature.