Study forecasts nearly 77 million US adults will have obstructive sleep apnea by 2050, with women experiencing the sharpest rise.
Key takeaways:
- A study led by researchers at Resmed through its medXcloud academic-industry collaborative used an open-cohort dynamic population model factoring in changes in age, sex, and BMI, and it predicts OSA will impact 46% of adults aged 30 to 69.
- GLP-1 therapies are expected to reduce prevalence by less than 5%, showing obesity is only one of several contributing factors.
- Authors urge expanded screening, streamlined pathways for diagnosis and treatment, and targeted public health strategies to prevent millions from going untreated.
A study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine projects a significant rise in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States over the next three decades due to a variety of factors, including an aging population and increasing body mass index (BMI).
The paper, written by several Resmed employees and others, estimates that by 2050, OSA will affect nearly 77 million US adults. This represents a relative increase—a difference calculated in relation to the starting value—of nearly 35% from 2020. The simulation used an open-cohort dynamic population model factoring in changes in age, sex, and BMI, and it predicts OSA will impact 46% of adults aged 30 to 69.
“This study reaffirms that the number of people with OSA is expected to dramatically increase,” says study co-author Carlos Nunez, MD, Resmed chief medical officer, in a release. “As an industry, we must expand screening, increase awareness of symptoms among providers and consumers, and make it easier for people to get tested and treated, including at home. If we don’t act, we risk missing tens of millions of people who need access to care.”
Detailed OSA Projections
Led by researchers at Resmed through its medXcloud academic-industry collaborative, involving academic thought leaders in sleep and respiratory medicine, the study also found:
- A 65% relative increase in OSA prevalence among women, reaching 30.4 million by 2050: The sharp rise, attributed to factors like an aging population and underdiagnosis, underscores the need for greater awareness of how OSA presents differently in women to support earlier screening, diagnosis, and targeted treatment.
- A 19% relative increase in OSA prevalence among men, reaching 45.9 million cases by 2050: This continued rise reflects ongoing risk in aging male populations, highlighting the need for scalable diagnostic pathways and long-term treatment strategies.
- The impact of GLP-1 therapies on future OSA prevalence is anticipated to be limited, with reductions estimated at under 5%: Even with advances in emerging drugs, such as GLP-1s, the overall number of people affected by OSA is expected to continue growing. GLP-1 use is estimated to reduce relative OSA prevalence by only 4% by 2050, from nearly 77 million cases to nearly 74 million cases. These estimates, from a sensitivity analysis included in the study, reflect that obesity is only one of many factors contributing to OSA, and that the significant overall growth of OSA prevalence remains a public health priority.
Call to Action: Improve Healthcare Pathways
The authors posit that the findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health strategies and better access to sleep care pathways to address the growing prevalence of OSA, particularly among females.
“As a sleep physician, I see firsthand how women with sleep apnea are often overlooked or misdiagnosed. In women, OSA may cause fatigue, insomnia symptoms, brain fog, or mood changes—not the typical nighttime snoring and daytime sleepiness. These differences mean that too many women go untreated for years,” says sleep physician Audrey Wells, MD, a Resmed medical advisor who was not involved in the study, via email. “We must combat the lingering stigma around what a patient with OSA ‘looks like’ and strive for earlier, accurate diagnosis so women can finally get the deep, restorative sleep they deserve.”
“Understanding how the prevalence of sleep apnea may grow, and who will be most affected, is essential for shaping smarter proactive health and public health strategies,” said study senior author Atul Malhotra, MD, vice chair of medicine for research, research chief of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Sleep Medicine, and Physiology, and Peter C. Farrell Presidential Chair and Tenured Professor of Respiratory Medicine at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine, in a release. “This study fills an important gap by helping health systems, payers, and policymakers anticipate what’s coming so they can invest in earlier diagnosis, expand access to care, and improve long-term outcomes for millions of patients across the country.”
“Sleep apnea has long been underdiagnosed and underprioritized,” says study lead author Elroy Boers, PhD, a research scientist at Resmed, in a release. “This is the first data-driven forecast of how OSA may evolve, evidence that can drive earlier detection, proactive care, and smarter policy.”
